Deepening West Asia Situation – India’s Preparedness

Deepening West Asia Situation – India’s Preparedness

It is more than 75 days that war between the US, Israel and some countries of West Asia on one side and Iran on the other is going on which has resulted into deep crisis not only in the West Asian region but also the world at large. In spite of the fact, it seems, that both the barring sides are tired and exhausted but still trying to brow beat each other. The so called ‘negotiations’ to end the conflict hosted by Pakistan in cooperation with a few more stake holders has not

succeeded, as expected. Both the US and Iran have hardened their respective positions on major issues – Control and operation of Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear aspirations; inter alia. No early solution is in sight rather the situation has further deteriorated with threats and counter-threats. Due to the fact that the Strait Hormuz is the hub and nerve center of navigational flow of 80% of the energy sources not only of the volatile region but also of the world at large. Any further delay in ending the conflict, obviously, has direct bearing on the smooth flow of trade and energy supplies of oil and gas. The economies of the countries of the region are hard hit which is bound to usher the world into economic depression which also might result into recession worse than that of 1920-30s.

India is hard hit as most of its energy supplies and trade depend not only on smooth functioning of Strait of Hormuz but also peace in the West Asian region as India is a net importer of its energy supplies from the countries like; UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Iran itself. Apart from this, ten million Indians are working in these countries of the West Asian region that remained a perennial source of considerable remittances to their families back home. Besides dependence on energy supplies, India’s food security is also vulnerable as India is a net importer of edible oils and fertilizers for its agricultural sector.

Accordingly, PM Narendra Modi tried to take ‘We the people of India’ into confidence and cautioned and urged them to aware of the ground realities and be ready to face the emerging difficult situation in the wake of prolonged West Asia Crisis. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's appeal — with specific requests spanning fuel, gold, and fertilizers, cooking oil and foreign travel— is being read by many as

a prelude to administered price hikes over the spectrum to address the economic fall out of the crisis. Obviously, GOI cannot afford to be oblivious of the ground realities and must act and set the house in order to face the deepening crisis. I am confident that the people of India would certainly rise to the situation and cooperate and support the measures taken by the GOI, as always. Lal Bahadur Shastri did something similar with food in 1965, asking Indians to voluntarily fast on Monday evenings as the country faced both a war and food crisis. People understood and stood with PM as they felt that it was a genuine approach to meet the challenges of the times. Unfortunately, that sense of concern and trust is missing, it seems. The opposition parties have raised doubts on the policies and approaches of the GOI and raised questions on the practice and perception. It has been alleged that PM Narendra Modi and his associates were more interested in politics rather than addressing the difficulties of the common man. With regard to the energy requirements, Minister Hardeep Puri has assured the people and said, "There is no shortage of any petroleum product in the country. India has 60 days of crude oil, 60 days of LNG and 45 days of LPG reserves available. Amid tensions in West Asia, to ensure uninterrupted supply, India has unprecedentedly increased its daily LPG production (from 35,000 tons to 54,000 tons)" GOI has assured that our food reserves are sufficient and comfortable to live with the crisis. But we need to be ready and prepared to meet the crisis. We need to stand united and political leadership should lead from the front with sincerity.

What should be done? I have a couple of suggestions to make as a concerned and worried citizen of India –

i)               India should leverage its unique position as a trusted partner to all stakeholders—including Iran, Israel, the Gulf nations, and the US—to foster de-escalation, promote diplomatic dialogue, and prioritize the protection of the vast Indian diaspora in the region. Key efforts involve mobilizing the Global South for peace under the aegis of BRICKS of which India holds its rotational Presidency, securing energy supplies, and navigating the crisis to prevent severe economic shocks. 

ii)             The crisis will not end immediately with the cessation of hostilities and end of war. It will take time to bring the situation to normal particularly with regard to our energy supplies as the crucial infrastructures of our suppliers in West Asia have been damaged and destroyed in the war. It will take time to make them functional. Moreover, security situation and diplomatic parameters for interaction are bound to undergo a drastic revision. We need to plan our approaches not only to address the challenges on short term basis but also for long term responses.

Chupa Kar Asteen Mein Bijliyan Rakhi Hain Gardoon Ne
Anadil Bagh Ke Ghafil Na Baithen Ashiyon Mein
(The sky has kept thunderbolts concealed up its sleeve
Garden’s nightingales should not slumber in their nests)

iii)          There is an immediate need to fill the trust deficit in our political leadership; both the ruling elite and the opposition. PM Narendra Modi and the others in the ruling dispensation must engage themselves with the opposition leaders with sincerity and respect and shun the temptations to put the ‘personal and political creed above that of the nation’ as warned by Babasaheb Ambedkar. If we ignore these cautions of our forefathers, we would tend to put our progress and development into ‘jeopardy’.

मस्जिद तो बना दी शब भर में ईमाँ की हरारत वालों ने

मन अपना पुराना पापी है बरसों में नमाज़ी बन न सका

इक़बाल बड़ा उपदेशक है, मन बातों में मोह लेता है
गुफ़्तार का ग़ाज़ी बन तो गया, किरदार का ग़ाज़ी बन न सका।