Jalandhar Parliamentary Bye-Election May, 2023

 

Jalandhar Parliamentary Bye-Election May, 2023

I wrote about the Jalandhar Parliamentary Constituency in my blog earlier which may be seen at: http://diplomatictitbits.blogspot.com/2023/02/jalandhar-parliamentary-constituency.html

 I don’t know how much water has flown in the increasingly drying up, the Sutlej River? The candidates and the political parties are fully engaged in election campaign for the election to be held on May 10.

The results will be announced on May 13 for the seat in the parliament for less than a year. But the stakes are too high for all the political parties as the outcome of the May 10 contest would be taken as a ‘curtain raiser’ for the April/May, 2024 General Elections for the Lok Sabha.

I am a bonafide resident of Jalandhar and after my retirement from a long diplomatic career has come back to my roots. I, as apolitical observer, keep myself busy in socio-cultural, educational and political matters of concern and interest as my pastime. Since the election process is on; with high pitched electioneering by all the political parties and player, generally it should be advisable to watch and wait the popular verdict. But as a student to learn in the process, I thought of making my own assessment and share with the public with a view to strengthen the democratic process. I would tend to be fair but candid in my approach as a humble student of politics and an Ambedkarite. Kindly do bear with me.

About 19 candidates remained in the fray as on April 24, the last date of withdrawal of nominations. It is going to be a four cornered contest with major political formations – Karamjit Kaur of Congress Party supported by the CPI, Sushil Rinku of AAP, Inder Iqbal Singh Atwal of BJP and Sukhwinder Kumar Sukhi of SAD and BSP

alliance. There are some fledgling outfits like SAD (Amritsar), Bahujan Dravid Party etc. and some independents as spoilers and comic interludes in this festival of democracy.  I happen to know personally three out of the major four aspirants except Sukhwinder Sukhi whom I have not personally met so far. There are 9 assembly segments in the parliamentary constituency representing more than 1.6 million (about 16 lakh) voters comprising of both rural and urban areas. Out of the nine assembly seats, Congress has five and AAP has four in their respective kitties. The demographic divide is overwhelmingly outweighed in favour of dalit communities with 38% (22% Ad-dharmi/Ravidassia and 16% Valmiki/Majhabi) and rightly so as reserved seat for SCs. The political stakes are too heavy – Congress Party is to hold the fort to save and fortify their traditional hold – AAP, the ruling elite in Punjab, is to save their face after the dismal show in Sangrur – SAD and BSP Alliance is to re-emerge and re-register themselves after their clear defeat in assembly elections in March/April, 2022 and BJP is to show their presence and intent to approach the big show in 2024 General Elections for the Lok Sabha without their traditional partners, the Akalis. All political outfits have shown due consideration to caste while selecting their nominees – Congress obviously, while encashing the ‘sympathy factor’ of the sudden demise of Chaudhary Santokh Singh resulting in the bye-election, has reiterated their preference for the elite dalit family of Master Gurbanta Singh, an Ad-dharmi ( I understand Karamjit Kaur is herself a Kabir Panthi - tbc), though AAP is not much inclined to prefer, it seems, an Ad-dharmi/Ravidassia over other denominations yet has gone for another Ravidassia, Sushil Rinku, BJP has ignored their known Ad-dharmi front runners like Vijay Sampla and Rajesh Bagha and has picked, Inder Iqbal Singh Atwal, a Majhabi Sikh, SAD-BJP alliance has picked their prominent Ad-dharmi face and their sitting MLA Sukhwinder Sukhi. Though these sectarian details are not important yet the ground reality in elections is still caste-based thinking and conduct of the society at large. Coming to the relative strengths and weaknesses of respective candidates, let us analysis the scene a bit further. Karamjit Kaur of Congress was not active as a politician even after her retirement from her coveted academic career. Congress preferred to bet on her for ‘sympathy vote’ for the sudden demise and too in harness in the Bharat Jodo Yatra of Rahul Gandhi and the political legacy of Master Gurbanta Singh family. Obviously, these are important factors to weigh in her favour. Five sitting Congress MLAs in the constituency, of course, is a plus point for the Congress candidate.  Karamjit Kaur herself is an educated and cultured person but the flip side of the case equally cannot be ignored – the family is divided with Surinder Singh’s behaviour in point, Sushil Rinku who was a Congress face hitherto deserted the party and joined AAP, there is hardly any  prominent dalit face in the Congress campaign expect  Former CM Charanjit Singh Channi who, it seems, has already lost steam, MLA Vikram Sngh, son of Karamjit Kaur though a young and educated man, it seems, yet he lacks the much needed traits of good PR which is very important for public life in democracy. As regards the AAP candidate, Sushil Rinku, his bête noire, MLA Sheetal Angural and

his family may not be able to come along whole heartedly to support Rinku. Sushil Rinku though is a known face in the urban areas of Jalandhar yet lacks recognition in the rural areas. His act of switching sides all of a sudden may not go down well with the masses. Though AAP has four sitting MLAs in the constituency yet it is not certain whether they would be able to rise above the caste considerations and accept an outsider who till yesterday was vehemently opposed to AAP and its leadership. AAP’s own volunteers are not very happy to accommodate a parachute

candidate. BJP, with a view to rope in a Sikh face, side-lined its own cadres like Rajesh Bagha or anyone from the clan of Vijay Sampla and Som Parkash and picked up a dark horse, Inder Iqbal Singh Atwal an old SAD faithful. Atwal is considered an outsider by the majority (22%) of Ad-dharmi/Ravidassia voters. He may also not enjoy whole-hearted support of SC leadership of BJP in Punjab. The fourth contestant is Sukhwinder Sukhi, a sitting SAD MLA from Banga, representing SAD and BSP combine. Though Sukhi is considered a capable and clean politician from the Kanshi Ram flock yet would have the tag of an outsider. The hard-core BSP carders’ dislike the likes of Sukhi and Pawan Tinu as they feel that they ditched Kanshi Ram and Mayawati and also the BSP and went for the greener pastures. The hard-core SAD caders ‘may vote for a Sikh face, Inder Atwal, who till yesterday was with them.

All said and done, it will be a tough fight. As of today, April 25, if one goes by the media including the social media and visibility of campaign, Karamjit Kaur of Congress appears to have an edge.  I wrote in my blog earlier about the selection of candidates. Congress Party did not have much choice and perhaps Karamjit Kaur fitted the bill to hold the fort over ridding Sushil Rinku and Mohinder Singh Kaypee and even Charanjit Singh Channi. AAP leadership in Delhi, to my mind, had their own vested considerations in picking their candidate. CM Bhagwant Mann is made to go for a big ‘test’ to save his position.  It should have gone for an experienced and mature businessman or an intellectual or a professional including some retired bureaucrat to bring in fresh air to placate the SC intelligentsia. For BJP, I had suggested roping in fresh talent without baggage of the past from intellectual and bureaucratic circles but it decided to give preference to its ‘backroom’ boys in other political outfits. SAD and BSP combine was in real dilemma to pick up their nominee – they were to make up their mind as to whether SAD or BSP would

contest, BSP was reluctant to support the SAD faces like Pawan Tinu, Baldev Khaira or even Sukhwinder Sukhi considering their erstwhile affiliation with BSP. It would have been better for SAD-BSP alliance to zero on a fresh face from socio-political background. Let us see whether the alliance partners are able to transfer their vote kitty to Sukhwinder Sukhi who is a ‘gentleman’ politician otherwise. The results on May 13 would tell us the outcome of the ‘litmus test’ for all the major political formations. With the on-going campaign, some new trends and indicators are emerging – dalit leadership in all parties is fast dwindling which should be a matter of concern and worry to the dalit intelligentsia in state with the highest dalit population, new alliances are to emerge before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections – BJP and Akalis are likely to join hands again as Akalis and BSP could not put up a joint front, dalits of Punjab would be needed to think and break their head to ‘unite’ under one umbrella. It seems, BSP has lost its way and has gone with the wind.

Before I close this off the cuff analysis, let me touch the role of Deras; particularly the dalit Deras which are being visited and wooed by all the candidates and their respective parties, whether they have any meaningful role to play at all. My answer is ‘NO’. The dali

t deras don’t have any agenda and wherewithal to deal with political matters as the other big players like Dera Satsang Beas, Nirankaris, Sacha Sauda among others. The Dalit Deras, it seems, are contented with photos opportunities with VVIPs and siren fitted police escorts and gun wielding police guards. I fully agree with Des Raj Kali as reported in the Tribune, “Dalit writer,  Des Raj Kali has also been terming the dera factor purely an illusion and claims that no dera enjoys a sway with the people.” I take this opportunity to wish all the best to all my friends in the fray. As I said in the beginning that my take on the subject is ‘apolitical’ one, I might have said certain things which may not be fully digestible by some of the political players. I have no intension to ruffle the feathers of anyone but to say my mind as an alive and alert common citizen. 

The life goes on –

Pardon Mein Jo Pinha Hai; Chasme Bina Dekh Laiti Hai,

Zamane Ki Tabiat Ka Taqaza Dekh Laiti Hai